A few new players have asked whether all you get from the Mystery Box is decorations. So here’s a repost of something from March on those Mystery Box odds.
While the Mystery Box is a premium item, you also get one for free every 5 days. While it no longer promises premium items (see here), there are still premium items in there. And, of course, a Mystery Box is the only way that you’re currently able to get one of those coveted, income-earning Lemon Trees.
There’s a game going on behind the scenes every time you either buy a Mystery Box for 6 donuts or collect one as a daily reward. The game first internally generates a random number between 0 and 1. Each item available through the Mystery Box has a number assigned to it and you win the item that has the first number that’s greater than the random number generated.
So, what are the chances, then, of winning anything really good? Here’s a list of what you can win and the probability that it will be inside any given Mystery Box:
Mystery Box - 10.983% (strangely, the item you’re most likely to win)
Lemon Tree (or $250 if you have one already) – 10%
Parking Lot – 10%
Brown Fence – 10% (although some additional calculations apparently boost the probability that this is what you’ll get)
Tree – 10%
Large Hedge – 10% (although some additional calculations apparently boost the probability that this is what you’ll get)
Newspaper Dispenser – 10%
Picket Fence – 4% (although some additional calculations apparently boost the probability that this is what you’ll get)
Gazebo – 4%
Angel Topiary - 4%
$500 – 4%
Bench (with towel) – 4%
$1000 – 4%
10 donuts – 2% (the first thing the Mystery Box every gives you!)
Squeaky Voice Teen (or 30 donuts if you have him already) – 2%
Homer Buddha – 1%
$2500 – 0.01%
30 Donuts – 0.004%
Tire Fire (or 40 donuts if you have it already) – 0.002%
Lard Lad – 0.001% (there appears to be no donut alternative, probably because you can have multiple Lard Lads in your town)
So, it’s all a matter of luck – and I was lucky enough to get my Squeaky Voice Teen this way!
Acknowledgements to j_3xx9 at http://tstappedout.proboards.com for the information used in this post.